Week 4 football picks
Ho, ho, ho. Merry Christmas.
That’s basically the message I’ve been sending to my competitors the last two weeks in the picks. I’ve done everything I could to help them. I’ve gift-wrapped wins for them. I’ve made picks where I’ve seen both teams up close and knew how the game would end up but went the other way because I figured I was wrong. Figure that sentence out. I’ve made picks because I heard a song numerous times during the week. Great strategy.
So John and Trevor have had their chances to get ahead of me and they didn’t. No more messing around. I feel like Ivan Drago and my crazy trainer is telling me to drop the hammer. The hammer is being dropped.
JC: I didn’t figure I was headed for a rebuilding season here in the weekly picks. I’m not sure what to make of last week’s 3-5 effort except to say I wish Will Smith or Tommy Lee Jones could come by with one of those memory erasing devices and flash it in my eyes to make me forget about the whole week. Trevor has been living up his pyrrhic victory. Well that and celebrating turning 21. I hoped he enjoyed his short-lived reign as a winner. I’ve never put together two bad weeks in a row like that before. I’m confident I can put it behind me and regain the top spot again this week.
TP: Alright, does anyone want to know how dedicated I am to this blog? It’s my 21 birthday today, and here I am, sitting in front of my computer investing myself into this pick ‘em. If only I would have used the same motivation in high school, I would have spent more time in biology and less time talking with the administration. Then again, you’re only in high school once — so why not enjoy it? So, if I win today — I say John and Andrew buy me, umm, a root beer.
Lone Peak at Brighton
JC: I have to say I’m kind of surprised to see the Knights fall to a winless Highland team last week. I believe Lone Peak will get back on track against the Bengals. There is nothing about Brighton’s offense that screams upset to me. And their defense is good, but not good enough to shut down Chase Hansen. Looks like the Knights will cage these Bengals and ship them off to the circus. Lone Peak 20, Brighton 10.
TP: Do really know what both of these teams really are? Just when I was beginning to think the Knights were for real, and had finally fixed their offensive woes — they looked like the Pee Wee “B” team at Copper Hills against Highland. Not that there’s anything with the “B” team of course, isn’t that where you played Andrew? Told you I’d get you AA — sorry for the inside joke, but he was curious about what I’d make fun of him for this week. So, I’m expecting him to repay the favor later on in the blog. As far as the game is concerned I’ve been deciphering back and forth on which team to choose here. I like the Bengals defense, obviously, and they beat a very good Hunter team — a team that I’ve been saying all year, and the previous off-season, would be immaculate, incredible, and insanely good. I really need to look into purchasing my own home stenographer for documented proof of what I’ve said. Anyway, the reason I’m rambling on this particular summery, is that the game is a 50/50 coin flip. I’ll go with the home team. Brighton 10, Lone Peak 7.
AA: Trevor is not going to get in my head with his insults this week. I’m locked in. But this game has me feeling locked out. How do you figure this game out? Lone Peak, you would think, has a better offense. But Brighton shut down a physical offense last week, so does that cancel out the Knights’ offense? Who knows. Points will be at a premium, and I think I like Brighton to keep its momentum going. Brighton 7, Lone Peak 6.
Pine View at Desert Hills
JC: The Panthers have beaten their last two opponents by a combined score of 75-0. The Thunder have given up just six points all season in racing out to a 3-0 start. Something has to give here. I’m inclined to believe it will go in Pine View’s favor. I am impressed with the Desert Hills defense. But it’s one thing to shut down the likes of Emery and North Sanpete. It’s another to contain a good 4A team. Yeah, the Panthers lost badly to East. But that is more indicative of that team’s overall improvement rather than Pine View being a weaker team. Pine View 10, Desert Hills 9
TP: The first week of the season, I foolishly predicted Pine View to waltz into East and hopscotch its way back to St. George with a victory. I was then surprised to see not only did the Leopards pick up the win, they embarrassed Pine View. However, it’s not nearly as surprising considering the fact that East is the turn-around team of this year and is playing great football. Since the 32-14 loss to East, the Panthers have dropped back-to-back shutouts an outscored its two opponents 75-0. Desert Hills has the lowest point total scored against its defense this season, only giving up six points in the season opener. Taylor Fox and Riley Ferwerda are the Bobby Boucher’s of the Thunder defense. No, they’re not frog cake eating, ex-waterboys, from Louisiana. They just find themselves in the right position at the right time quite often. I think Desert Hills turns some heads with a solid victory at home. Desert Hills 21, Pine View 7.
AA: Another tough game to call. I like both defenses, and I like how Pine View has adjusted since its opening night defeat against East. The Panthers will win this one. Pine View 14, Desert Hill 12.
Cedar at Manti
JC: This matchup of unbeaten teams feels a little deceptive to me. Quite honestly, who has either team beaten at this point? The Redmen’s marquee victory is over a winless American Fork squad. The Templars’ best victory is over 1-2 Union. Ugh. I might as well flip a coin on this one. Actually, on second thought, I’ll go with Cedar. The Redmen shut out a bad 5A team, but it still was a 5A team. That trumps anything Manti has done. Cedar 20, Manti 17
TP: There haven’t been many teams as impressive as Cedar early off, and the success of the Redmen in large part is due to Matt Grover — who already has six touchdowns through three games. Sign him up for my fantasy team please. Manti, however, is also undefeated. The asterisk next to both of these teams is strength of schedule. Now it’s time to prove who’s real and who’s not. Cedar 35, Manti 31.
AA: It’s the only game of the night featuring unbeaten teams and I like the Redmen. I think Cedar has a real shot at winning the 3A title. Cedar 35, Manti 24
Woods Cross at Olympus
JC: This could very well be the most competitive game of the night. The Wildcats are a team that knows how to put points on the board in a hurry. So do the Titans. In covering the Battle of the Rock two weeks ago, I got the sense there is something special about this Olympus team. These players really believe they can win the Region 6 title and are motivated to prove to everyone that Titan football is a factor in the state again. They have convinced me they are good. I’m not convinced they are good enough to beat Woods Cross. The Wildcats beat Olympus easily a year ago and I’m pretty sure that Tyler Parson & company didn’t suddenly forget how to do it.
Woods Cross 28, Olympus 24
TP: What a great game this will be. I love picking Woods Cross games, because I know for a fact Andrew will pick the Wildcats. John has yet to pick against them this season as well — so I’m going to make this short and sweet. Olympus, I’m sorry for picking Skyline in week one. I learned my listen. Hey, John, do you have any more of that green face paint you’ve been using for South Summit games? I could really use it this week, Titan pride. Olympus 24, Woods Cross 21.
AA: Once again, I’m locked in and not letting Trevor get in my head. I changed my Mountain Crest-Woods Cross pick 42 times last week because he had me all rattled. I don’t know where or how this Woods Cross thing started, but fine. I can’t pick against the Wildcats. Woods Cross 31, Olympus 30.
Weber at Fremont
JC: This is one of those tough-to-read games simply because both teams seem to be at similar levels early in the season and the two are county rivals. Warriors QB Jantz Arbon has been a consistent run/pass threat and containing him will be the no. 1 task for the Silver Wolves defense. On the other sideline, Nick Vigil is an absolute beast in the backfield for Fremont. My hunch is that Fremont will use Vigil’s legs to control the ball and prevail in a low-scoring one. Fremont 17, Weber 13
TP: Region 1 is so difficult to predict. Like I said last year, the problem with Region 1 is you can’t gauge the teams because of the lack of preseason opponents. They play the same teams, over and over — and for the most part, every team has the same style of play as well. Weber is 2-1, but they needed a last second field goal to beat Box Elder, than got destroyed by Davis. Fremont on the other hand, played alright against Jordan in a loss, than beat two weak teams. This could go either way, but the Wolves home field advantage will pull through. Fremont 21, Weber 20.
AA: I should never miss a pick on a Region 1 game after seeing all of the league’s teams this summer. I’m going out on a limb here. New Weber coach Rick Corbridge was an assistant at Fremont the last seven years. I’m giving the edge to the Warriors because he knows their personnel. It will be like Jon Gruden’s Buccaneers beating the Raiders in the Super Bowl, only Corbridge won’t be going nuts on the sidelines like Gruden. Weber 20, Fremont 19.
West at Hunter
JC: What in the world happened to the Wolverines last week? Their offense disappeared faster than menu items at a buffet serving offensive linemen. 47 yards of total offense and five first downs? That’s bad stats for even a quarter of play. The good news for Hunter is that its defense will give it the edge as long as that offense shows any signs of life. West will present a stiff challenge, but I’m not convinced the Panthers can do anything better than the Wolverines’ three previous opponents.
Hunter 21, West 7
TP: Both of these two programs are on the rise. I think last week’s offensive inability was credited to being an off week, and Brighton’s stellar defense. Most of these games have the possibility of going either way, and should all be close. This game is no different, but the Wolverines will get it done. Hunter 28, West 21.
AA: Stop me if you’ve heard this before but this is a tough game to call. West struggled stopping the run against East last week, and that’s what Hunter does quite well. But what happened to the Wolverines last week? I have no idea. Bad timing for the Panthers, playing Hunter when it is coming off a loss and wanting some payback from last year. Hunter 24, West 17.
Alta at Jordan
JC: Alta is 0-3? Say it ain’t so! Yeah, things are looking awfully bad for the Hawks at this point. Then again, look at who they lost to so far. I’m guessing the majority of the teams in the state would be winless going against Bingham, Cottonwood and Timpview in the first three weeks. This is a good measuring stick game for the Beetdiggers, who have not fared well against Alta in recent seasons. Can Jordan finally break a four-game skid against the Hawks? Hmmm … I normally can’t see Alta losing four straight to open a season. But the Beetdiggers are on fire offensively too behind McCoy Hill. It’s going to be another long weekend for Les Hamilton’s crew.
Jordan 38, Alta 28
TP: When is the last time that Hillcrest was 3-0 and Alta was 0-3? Then, Jordan comes in looking unstoppable at 3-0, and have Beetdiggers fans thinking this could finally be the year that they get the better of Alta. Not so fast. If Jordan played the same preseason schedule as Alta, they could be looking at the same start, and fortunes could be much different for both teams. No way does Alta start 0-4. I just can’t see it happening. Alta 35, Jordan 24.
AA: I think Trevor is hampered by the same problem I had last week, and no, he’s not getting in my head. You see your alma mater playing against a rival school. When you went there, your school had success against the rival and you see your alma mater winning. Actually, I could see his alma mater winning this game, too. Logic says to take Alta in this game. The Hawks are coming off three losses and they’re playing a team they’ve taken four straight games from. But I’m thinking this is a special year for the Beetdiggers, and they’ll continue their surprising start in a game that might last six hours. Jordan 45, Alta 44.
Westlake at Provo
JC: It’s nice to see the Thunder off to a 3-0 start, but you have to wonder how much of it is a result of a soft early schedule. Westlake’s first three opponents are a combined 1-8 overall up to this point. On the other hand, Provo has played a pair of 2-1 teams and spilt the games (big win over Stansbury, big loss to West Jordan). I like the fact that the Bulldogs have a multi-dimensional offense behind speedy receiver Keoki Unufe, quarterback Trevor Zibetti and running back Kyle Larsen. Still, you can’t discount the mobility and accuracy of Westlake QB John Ursua. He has thrown 10 TDs versus 1 pick while completing 64 percent of his passes. He is also a legit threat to rip off huge runs on quarterback keepers. Provo is the latest team the Thunder are going to bring storm clouds down on. Westlake 42, Provo 24
TP: Strength of schedule. What is this the Sun Belt conference? What’s with the preseason games? How will we know if these teams are actually good? Provo got the shake down to West Jordan last week, its first quality opponent. Westlake is undefeated with wins against Delta, Maple Mountain and Payson. I do, however, think that quarterback John Ursua is the real deal for Westlake. He’ll find a way to get the Thunder the big region road win. Westlake 23, Provo 20.
AA: Storm clouds? I like it John. These teams seem evenly matched. I’m taking Provo just so I can disagree with both of these guys. And no, they’re not in my head. Provo 24, Westlake 23.