Week 10 picks

With just one week of regular season play and five total weeks of this competition remaining let’s look at how our picks competition is shaping up so far. We’re counting the last four weeks since we started this triple-threat match and you may be surprised at who’s leading.

None of us.

The Friday Night Rider is leading all three of us. He’s ahead of both Mr. Coon and I by three games. Trevor, who is having a season much like the New York Jets – started out like gangbusters but is now making rookie mistakes – is in last place and a full five games behind FNR. Here are the standings:

AA – 21-11
JC – 21-11
TP – 19-13
Friday Night Rider: 24-8

JC: Reports of my demise in this competition were greatly exaggerated. It is definitely nice to get back on track with another victory. But I’m not going to go too crazy over one victory. No cutting down nets or tearing down goalposts here. For now, my goal is to build up the kind of winning streak I enjoyed a year ago. I plan to be like the Road Runner and leave Andrew and Trevor in the dust like Wile. E. Coyote. And trust me, guys, Wile never catches the Road Runner.

TP: I think I have a newfound method of picking these games or one could argue – rediscovering old habits. When I won, I had a carefree mentality. The high school, pick em’ world was my oyster. After all I was the new guy, so I didn’t have any pressure. Since those two glorious weeks, I’ve hit rock bottom. It could be said, that I’ve been as impressive as Ray Finkle in the clutch. Therefore, rather than getting rallied up, scratching my head and pondering my flaws – which in reality, this built up my own obstacle course. So, I’m gonna go with the flow. Take it for what it is, and relax. Thanks for the advice Dr. Phil. I find myself two games behind Andrew and John, and five games behind FNR. Am I worried? Nah. Who’s to say that I don’t have my own version of the “Statue of Liberty” up my sleeve?

AA: All I know is that Trevor’s loss last week earned me a free dinner at Red Robin tonight. I’ve really only had one good experience at Red Robin and it was out of state so I need a Utah Red Robin to step it up tonight, just like the teams I pick.

Thursday:
Park City at Wasatch
JC: Both teams have offenses that can score in bunches. The difference here might be on defense — an area that is a bigger strength for Park City than Wasatch. The Miners are allowing only 14 points per game. I am tempted to pick the Wasps for an upset, but I can’t shake the fact that the Miners have won six straight in this rivalry — mostly by double digit margins. Park City 35, Wasatch 24.

TP: I like to compare similar opponents when gauging the quality of a team. Although, this could be considered a frowned upon fallacy, simply because not every team performs at its highest peak each and every night. However, most of the time one can get a fair evaluation by comparing such a stat. The game that stands out for both of these teams is when they played Morgan. Wasatch escaped with a 31-28 victory at home. Yes, the score is deceptive, because Morgan scored 14 points late in the 4th quarter to close the gap. As for PC, when the Miners traveled to Morgan, a game that I attended, Park City obliterated the Trojans in every aspect of the game. The four horsemen in the backfield for the Miners are the real deal. With so many weapons – it’s basically a “pick your own poison” scenario. Park City is too talented for the Wasps, straight up. Let this be said, I thought the Miners were the most talented 3A team at the beginning of the season, and they’re getting better week after week. This team is dangerous. Park City 49, Wasatch 21.

AA: I think in high school football you can get away with comparing scores between two teams, but doing it in college and the pros will make you consistently wrong. I picked Park City to win the 3A championship at the start of the season and winning the region title is a step in getting there. I don’t think this game will be too close. Park City 38, Wasatch 21

Mountain Crest at Sky View
JC: There are few teams that have been as dominating on offense the past few weeks as the Mustangs. In their past three Region 5 victories, they have averaged 49.7 points per game. Sky View has the horses to keep up with Mountain Crest on the scoreboard. But I think the Mustangs have a good enough defense to be able to stay one step ahead. Mountain Crest 34, Sky View 27.

TP: I think this game has the recipe to be a thriller. With Sky View trying to upend the Mustangs to claim a share of the Region 5 championship, they’ll be displaying some nasty, physical play. Sadly, this type of play is a dying act with these high tech spread and pistol formations; everyone wants to be the next Larry Fitzgerald. Speaking of prolific offenses, Mountain Crest can serve up points in a hurry. Run – AAT or Lethal Weapon 3 are the main reason for the abundance of points. The trio its better known as Alex Kuresa, Alex Knowles and Tyler Weese. These guys can flat out play, especially Knowles who is extremely underrated at his expected position. Watch out for the Pony Express in 4A. Mountain Crest 28, Sky View 14.

AA: Run AAT? Ha ha I like how Trevor comes up with such old-school stuff. It makes me feel not as old if that makes sense. Well, I wish point margins factored into our picks because I highly disagree with John and Trevor about how close this game is going to be. The Mustangs are peaking at the right time and making me feel very confident about them being my pick to win it all. Sky View isn’t as good as it’s been the last couple of seasons and although it is at home for this game, Mountain Crest is going to roll. Mountain Crest 49, Sky View 21

Springville at Salem Hills
JC: The Red Devils had a mighty impressive comeback to beat Spanish Fork two weeks ago. I don’t think they will need one against the Skyhawks. Salem Hills has made strides under Monte Morgan. But they aren’t ready to beat a team as good as Springville on the road just yet. Springville 31, Salem Hills 26.

TP: The Skyhawks have emerged as a surprise team and have a chance to make some noise. However, it’s hard to “put a finger” on if they’re really legitimate. “The Hills” (no pun intended on the reality TV show) have won three straight games, but, against teams with a combined record of 10-16. Before the streak, the Hawks were 3-3, including two losses to 3A schools. On the other side of the tale, Springville has proven that they’re contenders in 4A with multiple signature wins. With the game at home, on top of having superior talent – I think the Cinderella story for Salem Hills comes to a screeching halt. Springville 52, Salem Hills 21.

AA: That was a great comeback for Springville against Spanish Fork. It helped me beat these two guys in the picks. That’s all I need to know about this game. Springville 42, Salem Hills 21

Kearns at West Jordan
JC: This elimination game might end up lacking some drama. Sure, the Jaguars have faded a little after a 4-0 start. But two of their three losses are to Bingham and Pleasant Grove. I feel like West Jordan got back on track with last week’s 67 point effort against Payson. I just don’t see how the Cougars can slow down West Jordan’s spread offense for four quarters. West Jordan 28, Kearns 17.

TP: Who would have thought at the beginning of the season, these two teams would be competing for the final playoff berth from region 3? Not me. No disrespect towards Kearns, but I think that West Jordan is better than their record shows; in my opinion they should be sitting in second place in region. However, due to an infectious turnover bug that bit them during homecoming weekend, the Jaguars find themselves in this unfavorable situation. I think that Mike Morgan, whom is one of my favorite coaches in the state, will have West Jordan ready for this matchup. Look for Adam Boelter, who has a staggering 34 total touchdowns on the season, to find the pylon multiple times once again. West Jordan 49, Kearns 24.

AA: I was at the turnover-fest on homecoming night for the Jaguars and they had Riverton on the ropes in the first half. They’ll have to play a complete game tonight to win and I think they will. Waiting for West Jordan will probably be Lone Peak in the first round of the playoffs. West Jordan 28, Kearns 13.

Friday:
Alta at Pleasant Grove
JC: If Dallas Lloyd were at 100 percent, the Vikings might be favored on their home field. But until he recovers from his shoulder injury, these are not the type of games PG is going to win. Alta has had some big injuries too. But the Hawks have enough depth to keep moving forward. I think Alta can get a big road win here and earn the right to host a first-round game. Alta 24, Pleasant Grove 9.

TP: At the beginning of the year, I picked PG to win it all. I figured, they have eight D1 players, and it’s extremely hard to repeat as champions. Plus they have all of their key games at home. However, I was unaware of how poorly they’d execute sometimes. It’s mindboggling to think they struggle as much as they do on offense, and no one will convince me otherwise. The Vikings have a non-existent running game. The injury of Joey Owens early in the year is crippling this team. The key to this matchup is Alta’s defensive coordinator, Ron Halbert, who I think is the hidden gem within the high school coaching field. Mark my words, whoever decides to offer this guy a head coaching job one day will win the lottery. The ability to frustrate the quarterback with a three man defensive line in the base “3-3-5″ scheme Alta implies is the biggest advantage I can think of. This allows all three linebackers to roam the field and the secondary to form a cushion – allowing big plays in the passing game defensively. What types of teams have given the Hawks problems in the past? Teams that are dedicated to the run, and have a physical offensive line – which is still prevalent this year with two setbacks against Bingham and Brighton, both of whom pounded the football. There is no way Alta leaves Pleasant Grove with a loss. Alta 35, PG 17.

AA: I agree that Halbert is a great coach and one of the underrated reasons why the Hawks are rolling as a program. It helps to have 3,000 kids come out for football and be loaded in talent, too. It’s too bad both teams aren’t at full strength for the game, but it should still be pretty good. I would probably like PG if it didn’t have some key injuries, but the ones they have are too much to overcome against Alta. Alta 21, PG 10

Jordan at Brighton
JC: This game offers a complete contrast in styles. The Bengals lead 5A in scoring defense (8.4 ppg). The Beetdiggers are no. 2 among 5A teams in scoring offense (38 ppg). The problem is that Jordan can’t stop anybody when they need to make stops. Brighton needs a win here to avoid a play-in game. I don’t think that will be an issue come Friday night. Brighton 28, Jordan 21.

TP: This is one of multiple games this weekend that has HUGE implications embedded within the threads of the contest. If Jordan beats Brighton, they would tie the Bengals for the final playoff spot in region 4, directly leading to a play-in game this upcoming Tuesday. However, I don’t think that’s going to happen. Although I think Jordan will give Brighton problems, at the end of the day defense will outperform offense any day. Get ready for Bingham boys. Brighton 28, Jordan 17.

AA: Here’s another one of those games that I’m an idiot if I can’t get right because I’ve seen both in person. After seeing both teams this season, I think Brighton should win this pretty handily. The Bengals will be way too physical for Jordan to handle and I don’t see Alex Hart having much time to throw. Brighton avoids the play-in game and sees Bingham next week. Brighton 28, Jordan 11.

Timpview at Provo
JC: Can Provo finally break the skid? It’s been forever since the Bulldogs have beaten the T-Birds. If there was ever a year where they could get the best of Timpview, this would appear to be it. The only problem is that as good as Provo has been on offense, the T-Birds have been virtually unstoppable. Timpview is averaging 50.8 points per game against region opponents while giving up just 8.4 points on defense. Looks like the Bulldogs will have to wait ’til next year once again. Timpview 38, Provo 20

TP: Well Andrew, you were right. Last week I picked the long shot Tigers to stun Provo and you advised me that this was a foolish choice. Yet again, you were right. This week, I’m not going to make the same mistake. Timpview has dominated 4A for years. In fact, they’re currently on a 38 game win streak against 4A opponents dating back to October 7th, 2005. Can you say powerhouse? The T-Birds have flown under the radar because of two losses to PG and Alta. Not exactly USC losing to Stanford or Alabama falling to Louisiana Monroe material, but, rather along the lines of LSU losing to Florida. It’s an admirable loss. Therefore, I think Timpview is still the king, pharaoh, viceroy….you get the picture. My thoughts? This could get ugly. Timpview 35, Provo 14.

AA: I talked to Provo coach Saia Pope the other night for the first time and I came away thinking he’s a good guy, confident about this game, and appreciative of the season his team has had. Louis Wong didn’t return my call about the game, which is really no surprise. The coaches and players who think they’re too important to talk to the media always crack me up, because they aren’t going to have interview requests their entire lives. Anyway, if you compare scores and look at the history of this game you come away thinking Timpview wins handily tonight. I need to disagree with John on at least one game though and I’m picking my spot here. Provo shocks the state, stuns Timpview, and wins the Region 7 championship. Provo 14, Timpview 10

Dixie at Pine View
JC: The Flyers have been on a roll since losing to Hurricane in week four. Dixie has won four straight in Region 9 and can clinch the No. 1 seed with a victory over the Panthers. Pine View is in a slump with two losses in their last three games. The low point came last week when the Panthers could not convert on five trips into the redzone in a 14-7 loss to Snow Canyon. That lack of production doesn’t bode well for them going up against Dixie. Dixie 31, Pine View 17.

TP: This game could be tricky to the untrained eye. Once again, I’m resorting back to similar opponents. This time, it’s Snow Canyon. Last week the Warriors shocked region 9 with a 14-7 win over the Panthers. However, what’s not entwined within the box score is the fact that Pine View squandered five redzone opportunities. While we’re on the topic of the redzone, the select BYU fans that feel the need to call it the “bluezone” need to stop. We realize that the school colors are blue; however, do you expect Virginia Tech to call it the “maroonzone” or Texas to refer to it as the “burntorangezone?” It’s not as clever as you assume it to be. That’s me on my soapbox for the day. Back to business, the New England Patriots would have a hard time winning if they didn’t capitalize in the redzone either, so I certainly don’t blame Pine View for losing the game, but if they expect to get past Dixie, they have to execute. I think that Pine View will get it done at home. Pine View 31, Dixie 24.

AA: I can’t believe Trevor is making jokes about BYU’s terms after cheering the Cougars on against Oklahoma. Sorry, I don’t come up with new jokes. I just rehash the old ones over and over again. Ask him about how I continuously joke about how he was coached in high school by the greatest coach of all time on any level, Les Hamilton-Jones-Lombardi. Anyway, that doesn’t have anything to do with this game and I think the Flyers win. Dixie 35, Pine View 28.