Week 7 picks

UEA week is great. It’s nice to get a break from the Friday night madness at least one week out of the season. As you know, there are games tonight, Thursday and Friday but there are more tonight than the next two evenings.

I have to give Mr. John Coon some credit for last week. He returned to the picks with a vengeance, taking the lead in the first week of our competition. While following the scores at the Davis-Northridge game last week, I felt like I was going to go undefeated. But Viewmont and South Summit lost their games by a total of six points. I can’t feel too bad about that.

JC: Looks like I’m going to rule these picks again. Performances like last week will surely put me in the Football Prognosticators Hall of Fame. And the best part about it is that I can go in with no asterisks next to my record. My victories have come about without performance enhancing drugs. Don’t worry Andrew and Trevor. Some day you can sit around the old folks’ home and tell endless stories about all the times I beat you.

TP- Well, welcome back John – apparently he is superman. However, now that the streak is off my back, I’ll be able to find his kryptonite easier. As far as Andrew saying I was cheering for BYU in the office … he knew I’d get a good laugh at that one. I’ve missed three Utah home games in 17 years – I had to clarify that for my readers. Utah man am I. With that being said, just like my beloved Utes, I’m going to respond after a close loss – in which they/I squandered multiple opportunities to pull off the victory. If it hadn’t been for double overtime, I’d be tied with John right now. That’s why we play the game though, right? Oh and what happened the next week for the Seminoles John? South Florida ringing any bells? Also, thank you Friday Night Rider for keeping track of the overall standings. I’ve enjoyed your feedback and participation. It’s great to see another avid high school football fan. Keep up the good work.

Northridge at Fremont
JC: The Knights lost a heartbreaker last week and, while they aren’t a great road team, I think they can get back on track this week. Why? Simply because the Silver Wolves haven’t beat anybody with a pulse. Their three victories are over opponents who are a combined 4-14. Northridge has shown it can compete with good teams. Beating an average Fremont team should not be a problem. Northridge 28, Fremont 21.

TP- The Knights are in desperate times. In desperate times, people call for desperate measures. After leading 17-7 against Davis last week, Northridge gave up 14 unanswered points to come up short. Another blown opportunity will virtually end the Knights season. They simply cannot afford to pick up another tally in the loss column. Fremont on the other hand, has yet to record a quality win. Throughout my segments on picking games this season – I’ve mentioned the importance of signature wins multiple times. It’s paid dividends, as most of the games I’ve selected on this factor have had a favorable outcome. I can’t start putting my money on a team, which has lost to Sky View, Syracuse and Weber – but won against Roy, Clearfield and Layton. It’s simple logistics. With the desperation on top of Fremont’s schedule results, I have to go with the Knights. Northridge 28, Fremont 10.

AA: I think my friends are underestimating the Silver Wolves here. Fremont has been a great turnaround story this season, while Northridge has also been better than expected. The Knights probably have the better athletes, but I’m sensing a minor upset here if you can call it that when both teams are 3-3. Fremont 28, Northridge 27

Viewmont at Davis
JC: This game is a tough one to figure out. Viewmont came achingly close to knocking off Bountiful last week. Davis had to rally in the second half to squeak past Northridge. You know this one will be tight through four quarters since the Darts and Vikings share a fierce rivalry. Still, Davis leads Region 1 in scoring offense and scoring defense in region games. That could be the difference maker. Davis 20, Viewmont 16.

TP- Can Region 1 be any more difficult? How can someone gauge how good the teams really are? They never play outside of their region, but when they do – results have looked ugly aka Davis versus Brighton. There isn’t a clear cut favorite or superior team in the region in my opinion, making every game a crapshoot. I do think that Davis is the better team in this scenario however. They’ve responded well since the previously mentioned loss to the Bengals, and the underlining factor in this game – is it’s being played at Davis. With one of the loudest student sections in the state (which is terrifically disciplined with school chants and keeping unison with hand motions – quite impressive if I do say so myself), the Vikings will walk the plank, mark my words. Davis 21, Viewmont 14.

AA: I made a minor mistake when picking Viewmont’s game last week and mentioning the ties I have to Vikings coach Brad Lloyd. I said he was my old geography teacher. It was actually an AP Calculus/Physics class with a little geography mixed in. It was pretty challenging but I handled it because I was a scholar. Why am I saying this? Because I underestimated myself. And I also think the Darts have been underestimating their opponents. They have been starting games slower than molasses going uphill. That’s going to hurt them at some point and I think tonight is the night. Viewmont 21, Davis 19

Olympus at Highland
JC: What has happened to the Rams this year? They were supposed to contend with Bountiful for the Region 6 title, but instead look more like a team fighting to stay above .500. I don’t like the looks of this matchup for Highland. Skyline torched the Rams secondary with long passes and the Eagles aren’t exactly what you’d call a passing team. Olympus has a potent pass-run combo in Spencer Harris and Terry Isaia. It could be a long night in Sugar House. Olympus 31, Highland 20.

TP- Highland is beginning to look more and more like Skyline, by that I mean they’re living on reputations rather than results. It’s show-me time for the Rams. Olympus is coming into the game with a 5-1 record, with the only loss coming against a very good Woods Cross team. Yet, they’re still predicted underdogs according to Parry’s power guide. I’ll have to agree. Olympus has been the underdog all season, but the Titans continue to produce results. With the lack of experience, I think the Highland Hecklers will play a huge part in the outcome of the game. If the crowd can get wild, Olympus could feel the heat. Highland 35, Olympus 31.

AA: Do high school teams have as much of an advantage playing at home as my Ute-fan friend Trevor says? I’m very skeptical of it. On all levels of football it seems like homefield advantage means very little these days. That’s just my opinion. Anyway, I can never pick a Highland game correct. I usually take the Rams and I’m almost always wrong. So I’m picking against them and I’ll see if I’m right that way. Olympus 31, Highland 30

Weber at Bonneville
JC: One thing the Lakers have in their favor is they have an awesome defense. Both Ogden and Mountain Crest struggled to move the ball against Bonneville. Too bad the Laker offense is horrific. Weber is improved from last season and already has some experience playing in grind it out games in Region 1. It should give the Warriors a good idea of how to survive Bonneville. Weber 13, Bonneville 10.

TP- The Lakers are still dealing with the heartbreak of losing a great man that impacted not only the school, but the entire community. They were able to pick up an emotional win against their cross-town rivals last week in dramatic fashion. I simply wanted to offer my condolences to the Budge family, and a hand of congratulations to the Bonneville team for the win last week. This week, the Lakers are hosting an underrated Warriors team. Weber has been nothing short of spectacular thus far in the season; they’ve definitely gained my attention and surpassed my original expectations for them to start the year. Weber is in a tight race in region play, so stepping outside of region could be both a benefit or a curse. I think that Weber is on the road to the playoffs, and will continue to build upon the current success. Weber 24, Bonneville 10.

AA: This is one of a handful of interesting nonleague games this week. But you have to wonder what these games will mean to the teams playing in them in the middle of the season. I wouldn’t want to play in one of these games. I’d rather just take a bye and not risk injury. If both teams play it straight like a normal varsity game, Weber wins. Weber 18, Bonneville 6

Jordan at Pleasant Grove
JC: The way some PG fans talk on this website, you would think they already won this year’s 5A title. I’ve got a suggestion for Viking Nation: Get through Region 4 first before you start planning your championship parades. PG has Jordan, Lone Peak, Brighton and Alta as its final four opponents. That’s a tough stretch for any team to get through unscathed. The Vikings’ task this week will be figuring out how to contain one-man passing machine Alex Hart. If they can do that, it should set up nicely for a grueling October. Pleasant Grove 35, Jordan 24.

TP- This game starts the disgustingly difficult stretch of region games for both teams. Jordan has been dealing with problems within the organization off the football field, but I honestly believe that it shouldn’t be a distraction heading into the game. PG’s defense is the real deal, in five games; an opposing team has yet to score over 14 points. With the offense starting to find its feet, the Vikings have one of the largest point differentials in the state. The Beets however, are no slack on offense. We’re all very aware of how explosive they can be with the pigskin in their possession. That’s not the problem. It’s always been the defense that has been the deciding factor for Jordan. They really are the Texas Tech of high school football. This game could easily be 49-38, but personally I don’t see it getting that out of hand. I do think that PG will win convincingly though. Pleasant Grove 35, Jordan 21.

AA: The Texas Tech of high school football! That was the line I was going to use. I like this guy Trevor, but he knows he was rooting for the Cougars against Oklahoma. This game won’t be close. PG makes a statement. Pleasant Grove 42, Jordan 14.

Park City at Morgan
JC: I can guarantee both teams will give their backfields a workout here. It’s no secret that the running game is a staple on offense for both Morgan and Park City. Actually, it seems like it is the only element to their respective offenses most of the time. Neither team is exceptionally strong at striking a balance between the pass and the run. When you compare backfields, the Miners’ duo of Erik Walker and Dylan Chynoweth are tough to beat. That alone should give Park City a slim edge. Park City 21, Morgan 17.

TP- Last week I picked against the Trojans, and it came back to bite me in the “you know what.” I’ve always thought that Morgan was very talented, and I still do. This can be a very dangerous team. The Miners were my upset pick to win it all, as the clear favorite is Juan Diego. After PC lost that game to the Soaring Eagle, they’ve disappeared. I haven’t heard a single thing about them. I think it’s working to their advantage playing out of the spotlight. This team is for real, and I stand by my pick, but let it be said, I think this is the game of the week. Park City 35, Morgan 28.

AA: Another nonregion game where I don’t know what to expect. I get the feeling Park City needs this game more because it plays in a terribly weak region. Morgan will play with pride but I don’t think the game will mean as much to the Trojans. If this were a playoff game I’d go with Morgan. It isn’t so I’ll go with Park City. Park City 24, Morgan 21

Ogden at Provo
JC: I’m feeling a lot less impressed with the Tigers since witnessing their 7-6 loss to Bonneville. That offense sputtered and died against a mediocre Lakers team. Facing an improved Provo team on the road will not help matters. Still, I think Nik Allred and Ogden will find a way to bounce back against a Bulldog defense that collapsed the last time it faced an explosive offense. Ogden 42, Provo 28.

TP- What an incredible story this game is. Other than the fans that support these teams, no one expected to have both these squads sporting a 5-1 record heading into the game. It’s the facts. Yes, one could argue that both teams have played a soft schedule, but that’s a separate argument for now. This game is a coin-flip in my opinion. So, my original thought is that Provo has the advantage playing at home. The home – road game philosophy is crucial when talking about high school games. When dealing with 16, 17 and 18 year old kids, you’ll get a new team each week, you never know if your star quarterback is going through a breakup, or if your safety is stressed about academics – therefore, it plays a huge part in the outcome of the game due to more off-field distractions on the road. Not only is this a road game for Ogden, it’s a LONG road game. It’s going to be a two hour bus drive to get to Provo. Well, I convinced myself with that one. Provo 42, Ogden 38.

AA: Here are my questions about this game? How good is Provo? And what will this game mean to both teams? The interesting thing is look at how far both of these programs have come to make us care about this game. I think I’m going with the home team. Provo 28, Ogden 21.

American Fork at Lone Peak
JC: Lone Peak is one of those teams who has quietly reclaimed its status as one of 5A’s better football programs. The Knights didn’t look great in losses to Alta and Bountiful. But they have impressive victories over Brighton and Mountain Crest and are the only ones to beat either team so far. I just don’t think American Fork is in the same class as any of those teams I mentioned. Lone Peak 31, American Fork 14.

TP- American Fork, much like Northridge is in critical mode. They cannot afford to fall further behind in such a strong region. Lone Peak is sitting in “comfortable” shape within the region, if everything goes according to plan, they should punch a playoff ticket. Lone Peak is coming off a thrashing from Alta, and American Fork after losing a heartbreaker to Jordan, dropped another game to PG last week. I have a hard time picking against the Knights though. I feel they’re superior in talent and they’re playing at home. This loss makes the Cavemen’s hope of making the playoffs slim. Lone Peak 21, American Fork 7.

AA: This is a great rivalry in all sports. I think that American Fork would do quite well in the other 5A regions, but Region 4 is just loaded. Lone Peak will bounce back after last week. Lone Peak 21, American Fork 12.