Prediction time for 4A and 3A swimming

Just one day from now, it will finally be time to get down to business. In the seven years that I have been exposed to prep swimming, I’ve never seen a year like this, and I honestly believe that we’re witnessing something really special. Why? Of the six team races, four of them are legitimately up for grabs. Four. I don’t know how long it will be before that happens again, but it could be a long, long time.

Of course, the 3A and 4A championships will be held this weekend, and 5A will be held next weekend.

Here are some predictions for this weekend, as well as a few thoughts, to think about before tomorrow.

Class 4A girls
Predicted winner: East High
Thoughts: East isn’t a lock, but I think it would be a monumental upset if the Leopards don’t repeat as champions this weekend. They have an 86-point lead over Timpview (361-275) heading into the meet. And while that’s slightly inflated because they won’t win all three relays (but should win two of three), I believe East is going to swim very well. And if that happens, it will be all over but the crying. The real battle on the girls side in 4A, I believe, will be between Timpview and Murray for second place. Timpview has a three-point lead on paper, but it could realistically go either way. For those that noticed, I moved Murray up to No. 2 in my final team rankings earlier in the week, and I think the Spartans can walk away with a second-place trophy this weekend.

Class 4A boys
Predicted winner: Springville
Thoughts: This should be a two-horse race between Springville and Snow Canyon, but tradition-rich Murray will be waiting to pounce if either of these squads show any weaknesses in their pursuit of the first boys state swim championship in the history of their respective schools. Snow Canyon leads by a couple of points heading into the meet, but I believe that Springville will win this thing. The Red Devils remind me a lot of the Orem team of a year ago. That bunch swam from start to finish like they were not going to be denied by anything, and I think Springville could swim like that this year. Snow Canyon, meanwhile, must show that it can excel as a team at elevation. Aside from Joe Beutler, the Warriors have traditionally struggled to adapt to the jump in elevation from St. George to Northern Utah. It wouldn’t stun me if they overcame it and had a great meet ‘ Snow Canyon has a really nice collection of swimmers ‘ but it hasn’t happened to date.

Class 3A girls
Predicted winner: Judge
Thoughts: I have had Judge ranked No. 1 all year and won’t jump off the band-wagon now. Much was made ‘ and justifiably so ‘ of Park City’s upset win over Judge at the Region 10 championships. However, don’t read much into that result. Judge had several kids in off events and didn’t taper at all. Judge always swam ridiculously well at state under former coach Gail Meakins, and that tradition has continued under Matt Finnigan. I think Judge will swim very, very fast this weekend, and if that happens, Park City won’t be able to make up the 41-point deficit it has on paper. Interestingly, Logan sits just under 50 points below Park City, and three teams ‘ Juan Diego, Wasatch and Cedar’ could all finish anywhere between fourth and sixth.

Class 3A boys
Predicted winner: Ogden
Thoughts: Of my four team predictions, I easily feel the most uncertain about this one. Wasatch carries a 20-point lead into this weekend, and I have every reason to believe the Wasps will swim fast. However, for some reason, I think Ogden is going to have what it takes to hold off Wasatch en route to its second title in as many seasons. Ogden must get off to a fast start in the first three events (200 medley relay, 200 free and 200 IM) and go on from there. Logan ‘ like Murray in 4A ‘ looms just behind the top two and could spring a serious upset if the front-runners stumble.

Now it’s your turn. What do you think will happen this weekend?