Sizing up the upcoming state swim meets

It’s time to get down to business.
One of the great things about prep swimming is the fact that everything ‘ from the first practice in September until the final rendition of the William Tell Overture blares over the loud speakers inside BYU’s Richards Building in February ‘ is all about the state championships.
You can debate whether the season should be shortened until you’re blue in the face ‘ some are currently doing just that on our reader comments for swim stories! ‘ but no matter where you side on that issue, there’s no denying the excitement we collectively feel during the state meets.
And they’re almost here.
The region meets begin today, as Region 9 leads off with its first eight events. Over the next two weeks, we’ll bring you comprehensive coverage from each of the region championships.
For now, here is my look at the six statewide team races:

Class 5A boys
‘ Who is the favorite? Skyline is gunning for its eighth consecutive 5A championship and remains the odds-on favorite.
‘Who else could contend? West Jordan has a legit chance to end the Eagles’ long, long title run. Right now, Skyline and West Jordan are neck-and-neck with each other.
‘Which team could be the most surprising? Lehi hasn’t flown on anybody’s radar but could finish as high as seventh if it can come up with some outstanding swims at state.

What’s happening in 5A right now ‘ and what could happen in a few weeks ‘ is easily the biggest storyline of prep swimming this year.
When I updated my team rankings two weeks ago, I badly wanted to score out 5A boys but simply ran out of time. Accordingly, I left that set of rankings the same ‘ 1, Skyline; 2, Bingham; 3, West Jordan; 4, Brighton; 5, Alta.
So you can imagine my shock when I scored out the 5A meet over the weekend and had West Jordan finishing 15 points ahead of Skyline. Yup, 15. I left Skyline at No. 1 in my rankings because I believe that, if the state meet was held today, the Eagles would squeak past West Jordan.
By the way, that’s been the premise behind my team rankings this year. I saw a reader comment recently that said my disclaimer at the end of my rankings meant that I was going off how these teams would stack up in dual meets. To clarify, my idea has been to say, ‘If these teams all met together in the state meet today, who would win?’ The reason for the disclaimer is that I wanted to differentiate between how I thought teams would stack up now, compared to how I think they will stack up at the end of the year.
Back to West Jordan and Skyline. I left Skyline at No. 1, but it could really go either way. For West Jordan to legitimately give Skyline its best shot at the 5A meet, it must avoid tapering for the Region 3 championships. I’ve witnessed the last two Region 3 meets, and both were blood baths between West Jordan and Bingham.
Many just assumed that both West Jordan and Bingham tapered for last year’s region meets. After all, both struggled to acclimatize to the state meet a week later. However, then West Jordan coach Gene Peterson told me candidly ‘ and I believe honestly ‘ that his kids were not tapered for last year’s region meet. What I think happened was that both schools ‘ Bingham and West Jordan ‘ got amped up big-time to race against each other at said Region 3 meet and physically exhausted themselves.
West Jordan must avoid during that this year to have a chance at taking down Skyline. If it means sacrificing a Region 3 title by putting all your kids in their off events (except, of course, those kids that are on the bubble of state qualification), it would be a small price to pay for hoisting the big 5A trophy two weeks later.

Class 5A girls

‘ Who is the favorite? I’ll give you three guesses. What’s that, you say? You only need one. Thought so.
‘Who else could contend? Nobody has a chance to beat Skyline’s young but talented girls team. I’ve got Skyline beating Brighton by about 100 points right now, and I imagine the final gap will be in that range.
‘Which team could be the most surprising? I’ll be stunned if Skyline, Brighton, Lone Peak, American Fork and Kearns don’t compose the Top 5 teams at the 5A meet, but Bingham has a good chance to hold off the chasing pack for sixth place.

Wow, this is already pretty long and I’m not even finished with the first classification! Good thing this isn’t going in the print edition of our paper. My editors would not ‘ I repeat ‘ would not be pleased.
So Skyline’s girls team is just solid. Brighton and Lone Peak both have very good squads and will battle each other for second, but nobody will come close to the extremely talented Eagles. Whether Skyline remains in 5A beyond next year or moves down to 4A, I’d bet the house on the Eagles winning a state championship in girls swimming in each of the next four years. The talent base is just phenomenal.

Class 4A boys

‘Who is the favorite? Based on this week’s Top 50, I’ve got Springville holding a 33-point lead over Snow Canyon.
‘Who else could contend? You could argue that Class 4A boys will end up being a two-horse race, but I’m not ready to count out Murray. So, for now, make it a three-horse race.
‘Which team could be the most surprising? I’ve been impressed with what Bountiful High has done this year. They don’t have a whole lot of depth but seem to be vastly improved over last year. Tooele would be my alternate choice here.

About an hour before I sat down to write my statewide swim preview last November, a 4A coach whom I deeply trust told me that ‘Murray is in front’ in 4A and is ‘way ahead of everyone else’ in the state. So ‘ like what happened to me in 5A this week ‘ you can guess that I was little surprised to score it out about a month later and find that Springville had passed Murray.
There are several unknowns in 4A right now, so trying to score out the meet is a little problematic. However ‘ without revealing all my methodology ‘ I can say that I came out with Springville beating Snow Canyon, 321-288. I’ve got Murray in third with 260 points and Mtn. Crest nine points ahead of Orem for third place at 198.
Unlike Snow Canyon and Springville, which are slightly limited because they have guys ranked in first and are therefore unable to score up, Murray can pretty much score higher in every event across the board. That’s why I wouldn’t count them out, though it’s becoming pretty clear that it will take an outstanding collective performance by the Spartans to overtake Springville AND Snow Canyon.
Watching this race play out ‘ on top of watching Snow Canyon’s Joe Beutler and Mtn. Crest’s Jake Taylor battle for Swimmer of the Meet ‘ should be awfully exciting.

Class 4A girls

‘Who is the favorite? East, the defending champion, is a fairly heavy favorite to win its second title in as many years.
‘Who else could contend? Timpview and East have had some epic battles in each of the last two 4A meets. Two years ago, Timpview edged East. A year ago, East edged Timpview. Both teams will probably finish 1-2 again this season.
‘Which team could be the most surprising? Can I call a team that I’ve had ranked third all year as my ‘surprise’ pick? Well, I’m going to. When I scored out the 4A meet this weekend, I had East beating Timpview by 83 points (364 to 281). But what surprised me was that Murray was only 26 points behind Timpview in third place. Virtually everyone, including me, has anticipated East fending off Timpview for first place. But it wouldn’t stun me if East ran away from everyone, leaving Timpview in a dog-fight with Murray for second.

East isn’t a lock to repeat as champions, but the Leopards are a strong favorite. Timpview just doesn’t have the sheer number of horses that East does. Everybody knows about the stars of both teams ‘ Shelby Bull, Winifred Lau and Alina Fong for East and Meagan Stone and Kylie Harper for Timpview ‘ but what separates East from Timpview is the supporting cast. The Leopards have a fantastic sophomore and freshmen group of swimmers, and I expect people will get to know them in two weeks.

Class 3A boys

‘Who is the favorite? Ogden is the favorite as it looks to defend its 2007 title.
‘Who else could contend? The only team capable of stopping Ogden is Wasatch. Wasp coach Leo Overdyn has built an outstanding team from scratch.
‘Which team could be the most surprising? There are few teams more loveable than Rowland Hall. The tiny Salt Lake private school does well every year in 3A despite competing with only a fistful of swimmers. Everybody knows about senior Connor Barton, who looks to lead the Winged Lions to a finish near the top five.

When I visited Ogden High near the end of the December, everybody was very tired and coach Jerry Hodgkinson quickly pointed out to me that his squad had a ton of work to do before the 3A meet. About a month later, it seems the Tigers are on the right track to get to where they need to be. One thing that strikes me when you thumb through the Top 50 website is how many Ogden swimmers are near the top of the rankings. All those kids will have the chance to move up in their respective events, and when you combine that with the depth below the stars, I think the Tigers look solid.
Wasatch is a very good team, however, and Logan and Judge will influence the rest of the proceedings.

Class 3A girls

‘Who is the favorite? Judge hopes to hold off Park City to become just the third girls program in state history to win six consecutive state championships (Brighton and Skyline are the other two.)
‘Who else could contend? This has clearly been a two-horse race since the start of the season. Judge and Park City. Both teams will keep their cards close to the vest during this weekend’s Region 10 championships, leaving the all-out assault on one another for the 3A meet.
‘Which team could be the most surprising? I’ve really liked what Canyon View has done this year. You can’t ignore the effect the UHSAA’s mid-realignment cycle changes have had on 3A swimming. Gone are the likes of Tooele, Pine View, Snow Canyon and Dixie, leaving the window for a number of teams to finish multiple spots higher than they otherwise would’ve. But you can’t blame somebody like Canyon View, which will finish in at least seventh and possibly higher.

When I scored this classification out two weeks ago, I had Judge beating Park City, 429-377. The Bulldogs are just so tough across the board, and I think they’ll have just enough to hold off rival Park City. Based on the scored-out meet of two weeks ago, Judge scored at least 50 points in five of the eight individual events. The Miners also have a lot of depth but just not quite at that level.
Let’s be clear, however. Judge isn’t a slam dunk here, though they are in the driver’s seat. Park City will give the Bulldogs all they can handle in two weeks ‘ and like so many other storylines ‘ it will be fascinating to see how it plays out.